That was a decade ago. But who’s laughing now? The revolution he foresaw, facilitated by the increasing power of desktop computers and the rise of affordable digital (DV) camcorders, is underway. Dubbed the “microcinema movement,” it’s the biggest technological change in moviemaking since the arrival of lightweight 16mm cameras in the ’50s and ’60s, which made possible the New Wave and cinema verite. Digital video–fed from your camcorder into your home computer, where you can edit it, jazz it up with spinning titles and special effects, then convert the finished product onto videotape or send it onto the Web for public consumption–is democratizing filmmaking, creating a nation of do-it-yourself auteurs.

There are now 8-year-old schoolkids who think it’s normal to make a movie for a school assignment. Home movies have reached new levels of sophistication: Carter Swenson, working on his $1,800 system in the basement of his home near Washington, D.C., tapes his twin daughters in front of a blue screen, then replaces the background with the music video of their choice. Voila, personalized MTV! “They get to dance with the Spice Girls whenever they want,” says Swenson.

Hobbyists use such software packages as MGI’s VideoWave II (street price, $99; PC only), Avid’s Avid Cinema (PC, $85; Mac, $104) and Ulead’s VideoStudio ($99; PC only). You’ll need a 166MHz computer at least, with a lot of hard-drive space, as well as a video-capture card. A few packages include both hardware and software: Dazzle’s Digital Video Creator ($249; PC only), Iomega’s Buz (PC, $199; Mac, $299) and Matrox’s Marvel G200-TV ($299; PC only). If you want what it takes to approximate the capabilities of a movie studio, there’s Adobe’s Premiere ($589; PC and Mac) and Ulead’s MediaStudio Pro ($449; PC only). Camera prices range from $400 for a low-end, conventional videocam to $3,699 for such “pro-sumer”-level digital cameras as the much-loved Canon XL1. The computer industry, of course, is pushing the new video trend: it wants consumers to buy newer, faster and more expensive machines.

Just as desktop publishing transformed the way magazines, books and newspapers were put together and distributed, the desktop video revolution is inspiring filmmakers–professional as well as amateur–to think different. When people look back at the seminal movie of 1998, it may not be “Saving Private Ryan” but the Danish birthday-party-from-hell drama “The Celebration.” Not because it won the New York and L.A. Film Critics awards for best foreign film but because it was shot on a Sony PC7, a consumer digital video camera. No theatrical lighting or special effects were used; only a small crew was necessary, and the budget was penny-pinching. " ‘The Celebration’ is the ‘Birth of a Nation’ of digital movies," says Peter Broderick, who as president of NextWave Films is financing extremely low-budget digital films.

Where the computer chips will fall is anyone’s guess, but there is definitely a movement afoot. Indie auteurs such as Hal Hartley, John McNaughton and John Jost have all shot on DV. Variety called digital filmmaking “the hottest topic among young filmmakers” at January’s Sundance Film Festival. Two touring shows–D.Film (a 90-minute compilation of short films and excerpts) and ResFest–have traveled the world, attracting fans and converts, as well as talent scouts from places like MTV and Showtime. One novice, inspired by what he saw at D.Film, taught himself computers, submitted a film to the festival and now works as a lead designer at MTV networks. “You don’t have to be an assistant to an editor for five years before you get your chance anymore,” says D.Film’s Bart Cheever. “You can cut right to the front of the line.”

The acclaimed documentary “The Cruise,” about a brilliantly eccentric New York City tour guide, was shot digitally, and edited on a computer in filmmaker Bennett Miller’s living room. The fact that these cameras are so small and unobtrusive has obvious benefits for a stealth-conscious documentary-film maker; people hardly noticed he was filming. “The Cruise” cost only $140,000 to make, $58,000 of which was just for the transfer from video to film. Soon, even that expense won’t be necessary. Digital-video projectors will be in place in theaters, satellites will be pumping movies through the skies and films will be distributed via high-speed “broadband” cable hookups to the Internet. In the last few weeks, two Web sites–IFilm.net and Atomfilms.com–debuted, showing independent films and shorts.

As the line between amateur and professional blurs, it suddenly seems as if everybody is getting in touch with his inner Capra. Why? Because now they can afford to. Fifty-year-old video hobbyist Jerry Anderson put together a zippy, near-pro-level system: a Miro DC30 Plus Capture Card, Adobe Premiere and a 400-MHz Pentium computer with 18 gigabytes of hard-disk space for $3,500. Anderson proved so dexterous with his new technology that he got signed up to make a video for Habitat for Humanity. Once you have your hardware and software in place, further expenses can be minimal. Last year Pennsylvania filmmakers Lance Weiler and Stefan Avalos released a feature-length murder mystery called “The Last Broadcast.” Shot on a budget of $900, it may be the cheapest feature ever made.

Even tots are getting into the act. In Concord, Mass., Susan Zellmann-Rohrer donates Avid Cinema to local schools and institutions, and works with students from kindergarten to fifth grade to make little movies. Her goal is to help students attain visual literacy. “It’s the word processor of the turn of the millennium,” she says.

There is, to be sure, something scary about the sheer volume of movies the new technology is unleashing. “Access to tools doesn’t guarantee talent,” understates Nick DeMartino of the American Film Institute. Director Rob Nilsson, a pioneer in video filmmaking (1987’s “Heat and Sunlight”), puts it even more directly: “The amount of trash that’ll be made is immense.” That fat girl in Ohio may be Mozart, but we’ll be lucky if she’s Salieri–or even good enough to make it onto “America’s Funniest Home Videos.” And who’s going to sort through the tidal wave of cassettes and DVDs that will swamp film festivals, film schools and film companies in the future? In the brave new world of desktop filmmaking, every wanna-be Spielberg, every teen Tarantino, can step up to the plate for a swing at glory. But with so many people making movies, will anyone be left to watch them?